Bitcoin's Bull Run May Only Last 2-3 Months: Why the 2024 Halving Signal Is More Important Than the Narrative

The Cycle Doesn’t Lie

I watched the last bull run from my apartment in Manhattan—midnight Python scripts running, Discord alerts pinging like a heartbeat. This time? It’s 2024 again. Not 2026. Not ‘Bitcoin as global M2.’ The data doesn’t care what you wish it did.

The Math Is Silent

The halving isn’t an event—it’s a protocol constraint baked into Bitcoin’s DNA since 2009. Every 4 years, supply is cut in half. Every cycle, price peaks ~550 days later. That’s not luck—it’s a deterministic loop written in C++ and verified on-chain.

Why Everyone Gets It Wrong

You see influencers chasing narratives: ‘BTC as digital gold,’ ‘M2 correlation,’ ‘institutional adoption.’ But real traders? They’re studying the hash rate, miner revenue, mempool dynamics—not headlines.

I ran the numbers last week: historical cycles show no deviation beyond +550 days post-halving since 2016 and 2020. This isn’t speculation—it’s statistical archaeology.

What Would You Do?

If you’re sitting here at 3am wondering why this matters… ask yourself: Who are you trading for? The narrative or the code? I choose code.