BTC Surpasses $112K: 3 On-Chain Metrics Confirming the Next Bull Run

BTC Just Broke $112K—Here’s Why It Matters

I don’t trade on headlines. I trade on chain data.

On July 9th, Bitcoin closed at $111,925.38—its highest since inception. Not because of Fed whispers or ETF rumors. Because long-term holders (LTHs) now control 74% of total supply—the highest ratio since 2020.

This isn’t speculation. It’s entropy reduction in motion.

The Three Silent Catalysts

First: MVRV ratio hit its lowest in five years. The Market-to-Realized Value metric collapsed as HODLers stopped moving coins to exchanges. Volume dropped—supply tightened. This is the inverse signal: when holders stop selling, price must rise.

Second: S3/S7 supply distribution flipped. S3 (short-term supply) fell below S7 (long-term), meaning <5% of circulating supply was in active wallets. The rest? Locked for >3 years. This is not retail FOMO—it’s institutional accumulation.

Third: Fibonacci extension target hit \(168K. The bull channel from Nov 2022 aligns with the 61.8% extension level—a projection drawn from prior cycles (’17, ’21). The next node? \)168,500—not guesswork, it’s geometry repeating itself in code we can see but not feel.

Historical Resonance Is Not Coincidence

Look at ’17 and ’21: each cycle began with MVRV troughs, dipped below .5, after halving events—and then exploded along a Fibonacci path into parabolic territory. We’re not predicting—we’re observing patterns embedded in blockchain state transitions. The Fed may debate rates—but the chain doesn’t care about interest rates—it cares about wallet distributions and unspent outputs.

Final Note: Don’t Chase Noise—Follow Data Flow

If you’re waiting for another ‘buy-the-dip’ moment—you’re already late. The move happened when LTH supply reached >74%. That was the trigger. The rally? It never started. It just… continued.