Is the US Stock Market Still Overbought? A Data-Driven Warning from a Harvard-Educated Crypto Analyst

The $31.6 Billion Signal

Last week, US equity funds saw $31.6 billion in net inflows—its largest single-week surge since early this year. On the surface, it looks like bullish momentum is unstoppable. But beneath the numbers lies a different story: liquidity isn’t driving growth—it’s chasing yield.

Bubble or Bust? It’s Not Either/Or

I’ve watched this play out before. When capital floods into overvalued assets, it doesn’t mean the market will correct—it means investors are betting on hope, not fundamentals. The S&P 500 crossing 6,300 wasn’t a milestone; it was a mirror held up to greed. And when fear takes a backseat, you don’t get calm—you get complacency.

Why Algorithms Can’t Fix This

AI-driven sentiment models predict continuation because they’re trained on past euphoria, not cycles of risk. The Fed’s loose policy isn’t easing anxiety—it’s amplifying it. We’re not seeing valuation; we’re seeing validation through volume.

The Real Risk Isn’t Overvaluation—It’s Inertia

The biggest threat isn’t that markets are overbought. It’s that they’re stuck being overbought—because no one dares to sell while everyone else buys more. This is where narrative meets mechanics: when data says ‘buy,’ but human instinct says ‘wait.’

So What Now?

I’m not predicting collapse—I’m mapping momentum till it snaps back. If you think this rally is sustainable, you’re missing the equation. The next break won’t come from fear. It’ll come from silence.