Trump to Powell: Slash Rates by 2-3% – The Data Behind the Demand

The Tweet Heard ‘Round Wall Street

Another day, another volatility-inducing Trump post on Truth Social. This time, he’s taking aim at “Mr. Too Late” Jerome Powell, demanding immediate rate cuts of 2-3 percentage points. As someone who’s spent years parsing Fed statements through Python scripts, I can’t help but chuckle at politicians treating monetary policy like a diner menu (“I’ll take one recession special, hold the inflation!”)

Europe’s Rate Cuts ≠ America’s Playbook

The former president cites Europe’s 10 rate cuts as justification – classic apples-to-oranges logic any quant would flag. The ECB faces stagnant growth (Q1 GDP at 0.3% vs US 1.4%), while our sticky 2.7% core PCE inflation still whispers “caution” to anyone crunching the numbers.

The $800 Billion Fantasy

Trump’s claim that cuts would “save $800 billion annually” deserves scrutiny. My back-of-the-napkin math suggests this assumes:

• Linear debt service reduction across all maturities (unlikely)
• No capital flight from dollar assets (10Y Treasuries already looking shaky)
• Perfect passthrough to consumer rates (when banks are hoarding liquidity)

What This Means for Crypto Markets

Asymmetric reaction watch:

• Bitcoin: Likely short-term pump on dollar weakness hopes
• Stablecoins: Yield pressure if money market rates collapse
• Miners: Relief rally possible… until energy costs inevitably spike again

Pro tip: Track the OIS curve rather than political tweets for real policy signals.

Disclaimer: All views expressed reflect statistical probabilities, not investment advice. Even if wrapped in British sarcasm.