When the Algorithm Says Sell, Do You Still Believe in Treasury Yields?

When the Algorithm Whispered Sell

I was staring at my screen at 3 a.m., ETH holdings quietly blinking—like a heartbeat syncing with the Fed’s next move. The numbers didn’t lie, but they didn’t scream either. Just whispered: Sell. Not because of politics. Because of pressure.

The CBO’s projections showed it clearly: short-term Treasury yields hit 4%+, while 30-year bonds sank below 4.35%. That gap? That’s not inflation—it’s anxiety made visible.

The Quiet Panic Beneath the Surface

My mother used to say: “Money doesn’t shout when it’s tired.” She’d watch Fed meetings like jazz sessions—silent, but deep. Today, that same rhythm plays in bond markets.

We think long-term debt is “safe.” But supply chains? They’re unraveling.

Why Short-Term Yields Feel Like Home

The Treasury Bond Advisory Committee says short-term issuance will rise to 25%. But here’s the truth no one charts: demand isn’t growing. It’s collapsing—not from lack of capital, but from exhaustion.

I asked Matt Brill last week: “Do you still believe this?” He smiled—and said nothing.

The Silent Arithmetic of Fear and Hope

This isn’t about policy anymore. It’s about who wakes up when the algorithm speaks. Who holds cash as liquidity drowns? Who still believes in yields when everything feels heavy?

I don’t call it risk. I call it grief dressed as data.