Why Powell Won’t Cut Rates Despite Trump’s 17 Tweets: A Data-Driven Analysis
Why Powell Won’t Cut Rates Despite Trump’s 17 Tweets
The Tweetstorm vs. The Fed’s Spreadsheet
Another day, another Trump tweet blasting “Too-Slow Jerome” Powell for not slashing rates. By my count, that’s 17 public tirades since January – enough to make a crypto influencer blush. But here’s what markets know that political theater ignores: the Fed isn’t programmed to respond to ALL CAPS.
The Tariff Tango (Or How to Inflate and Deflate Simultaneously)
Trump’s logic seems simple:
- Impose tariffs → Import prices rise → Demand rate cuts to offset inflation
- Claim “no inflation” → Berate Fed for not cutting
As someone who tracks DeFi arbitrage loops, I appreciate the creativity. But this dance violates economic physics. You can’t simultaneously argue tariffs cause inflation and demand rate cuts because inflation doesn’t exist. Even my Python backtests would reject this dataset.
Debt Math That Doesn’t Meme
The president claims a 2% rate cut would save $800B annually on interest payments. Technically true… if bond markets were static Excel sheets. In reality:
- Forced cuts without economic justification → Investor panic → Treasury yields spike → Defeats the purpose
- See: Turkey’s Erdogan playing this game in 2021 (Spoiler: Lira crashed 40%)
What Powell’s Charts Actually Show
While Trump watches Twitter metrics, the Fed tracks:
- 4.5% unemployment: Too hot for recession fears
- Core inflation at 2.3%: Still above target
- GDP contraction (-0.3%) vs. GDI growth (+1.8%): Statistical noise, not collapse
As any quant knows, when hard data conflicts with soft sentiment surveys (or tweets), bet on the former.
The Crypto Parallel: HODLing Policy Rates
Imagine if Bitcoin miners changed difficulty algorithms every time Elon Musk tweeted. That’s essentially what Trump demands from the Fed. Powell’s playing the long game – like a trader ignoring 15-minute candles during a bull run.
Pro tip for policymakers: When both Larry Summers and Paul Krugman agree you shouldn’t cut (rare unity!), maybe don’t.
When Might Cuts Actually Happen?
My probabilistic model suggests:
- September 2025: 65% chance (if employment cools)
- December 2025: 85% cumulative probability
- Imminent cut: Only if banks start failing again (not base case)
The market’s pricing two cuts; I’d take the under. Remember, the Fed moves at geologic speeds compared to crypto markets.
BitcoinBard
Hot comment (6)
Трамп вже відправив 17 твітів, але Пауелл як скала – ніяких знижень ставок!
Це як сперечатися зі своїм алгоритмічним торговим ботом: можна кричати скільки завгодно, але код не зміниться.
Особливо смішно виглядає його логіка: одночасно стверджувати, що митні тарифи викликають інфляцію І що інфляції немає. Навіть мій DeFi арбітражний бот не зміг би таке прогодувати!
Як кажуть у криптоспільноті – HODL, панове з ФРС! Ваші графіки значно надійніші за твітерські істерики.
До речі, хтось вже рахував, скільки б Трамп заробив на трейдингу, якби його твіти впливали на ринок? 😆
17 tweets não mudam a matemática
Enquanto Trump faz tempestade no Twitter como um touro numa loja de cristais, Powell analisa dados com a calma de um monge beneditino. A lição? Economia não é meme - mesmo que o presidente insista em tratá-la como trending topic.
Dica para traders: Quando Larry Summers e Paul Krugman concordam (milagre!), é melhor apostar nos gráculos do Fed que nos caps lock do Twitter. Quem discorda vai comprar Lira turca?
El Fed no baila al ritmo de los tuits
17 tuits de Trump pidiendo recortes, pero Powell sigue firme como un HODLer en bull market. ¡Hasta los influencers crypto se ruborizan con tanto drama!
Física económica 101
Trump quiere subir aranceles (inflación) Y recortar tasas (¿qué inflación?). Hasta mi bot de arbitraje DeFi diría: ‘Error 404: Lógica no encontrada’.
¿Cuándo vendrán los recortes?
Mi modelo dice: Septiembre 2025 (65%). A menos que los bancos empiecen a caer como NFTs en mercado bajista.
Bonus track: Cuando Summers y Krugman coinciden en algo… ¡huye! ¿Ustedes qué opinan? 🤔
El duelo del siglo: Powell con sus gráficos aburridos vs. Trump y sus 17 hilos de Twitter.
Como buena analista cripto, sé que los datos > los memes (aunque estos últimos dan más risa). El Fed sigue su hoja de cálculo como un trader disciplinado, mientras Trump juega al ‘sube y baja’ económico.
¿Moraleja? Si quieres políticas monetarias serias, mejor sigue a Powell. Si buscas entretenimiento… ya sabes dónde mirar 😉
#EconomíaParaMillennials #YoloMonetaryPolicy
Powell vs. Tweetstorm
Trump ngetweet 17 kali? Wah keren banget, kayak influencer crypto yang lagi promosi token baru. Tapi Powell malah ngelirik data inflasi dan pengangguran sambil mikir: “Ini bukan drama politik, ini ekonomi nyata!”
Tarif & Inflasi? Mainan Kecil
Mau naik tarif terus bilang ‘tidak ada inflasi’? Itu kayak mau main arbitrase DeFi tanpa modal—nggak mungkin! Data bilang inflasi masih di 2.3%, pengangguran cuma 4.5%. Jangan sampe kita jadi seperti Turki tahun 2021.
Cut Rate? Bisa Dibilang…
Kalau mau potong suku bunga sekarang? Ya… bisa jadi kalau bank-bank mulai bangkrut lagi—tapi itu bukan skenario dasar.
Pro tip: Kalau Larry Summers dan Paul Krugman setuju jangan potong… ya jangan potong!
Kalian pikir Fed bakal ikut tren Twitter? Haha… mending kita HODL data saja.
Komen deh—kapan menurutmu Fed benar-benar akan potong suku bunga?
